Labour shortages, rising material and housing costs, international clients, climate issues and reconciliation were some of the subjects discussed by a diverse group of Australian architects and landscape architects in response to the question: What are architecture industry leaders predicting for 2023?

To capture their thoughts and views for the future, Lindy Johnson Creative asked five leading architects about their predictions for the profession in 2023. Below, Shaun Carter (Carter Williamson Architects), Laraine Sperling (Buchan), James Davidson (JDA Co.), Shaun Lockyer (Shaun Lockyer Architects), and Nathan Clausen (Arcadia) share their insights about key challenges and opportunities for the architecture industry in 2023.

Labour and materials challenges continue

2022 was marked by massive hikes in costs driven by inflation, widespread labour shortages, and increased material prices.

“Resourcing is plaguing the industry,” says Laraine Sperling, head of strategy and marketing at Buchan.

Buchan responded to the labour crisis by establishing a strategic recruiting program. “We made a concerted effort to grow our next generation of leaders in alliance with our current teams to ensure we bring on diverse skills into the business.”

According to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data published in December 2022, building construction costs rose 11.1% in the preceding 12 months. However, there are regional differences: In Sydney and Perth, timber, board, and joinery costs are up, while plumbing products in Melbourne cost more. Skilled construction workers such as bricklayers, carpenters, and roofers are in demand everywhere.

“Costs remain front of mind,” says Shaun Lockyer, one of Australia’s leading residential architects. Lockyer believes that architects and clients planning to build need to be “pragmatic, conservative, and patient”. This means having realistic conversations about fixed or cost-plus contracts, price increases, timing challenges, and builder availability.

Similar challenges exist in the landscape architecture sector, says Arcadia principal Nathan Clausen. “Projects are getting pushed out or put on hold because of the increasing build costs and price escalation.”

Carter Williamson principal and design excellency advocate Shaun Carter adds that builders are easily getting supply items, or skilled labourers such as joiners again, but perhaps not to pre-pandemic levels.

Housing pain

For many Australians, housing costs are beginning to bite, observes Carter. “I think what we're going to see is a bottoming of the market around the middle of the year, when all these fixed mortgages come off and everyone starts to feel the full force of the interest rate rises.”

Going forward, Australians need to start having ambitious, society-wide conversations about public planning and policy settings that will generate more affordable housing stock.

International opportunities + The Brisbane Olympics Boom

“We are more global than we have ever been,” Lockyer says. “This means we are more capable and have greater exposure to potential clients, not only in Australia, but beyond as well.”

Sperling added that they are now actively putting their feet back into international waters post the pandemic and all its challenges, and are also targeting key projects relating to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

Large firms are looking towards the Olympics, which will require substantial new infrastructure work, and will be a game changer for Queensland. According to Clausen, these projects cannot be paused and have to be delivered.

Climate pragmatism

At the start of 2022, leading climate-adaptive architecture expert and principal of JDA Co., James Davidson had predicted that governments would need to address increasing disruption brought on by climate change. Just a few weeks later, catastrophic flood events hit the east coast of Australia.

“Now, the conversation has shifted,” Davidson says. “Previously, people were still of the opinion that it would be a long time before a major event happened again. Nobody believes that anymore.”

A Climate Council report on the 2022 floods shows the real cost of inadequate planning: insurance claims were estimated to be at least $1.45 billion (Insurance Council of Australia 2022). Yet only 3 percent of government funding is spent on disaster mitigation, with the lion’s share going to post-disaster reconstruction (Productivity Commission 2014).

On an everyday level, firms continue to actively seek to reduce their contribution to the construction industry’s carbon footprint.

Buchan ensures that each of their offices has at least two Green Star accredited team members, and that sustainability is embedded as an integral consideration in projects from the get-go.

For JDA Co., everyday sustainability often means weighing up between carbon miles and materials with longevity. “If it's a choice between a material that has travelled through multiple overseas locations versus a material that's locally produced, we might select locally produced,” Davidson says. “But if choosing the local option means that material will need to be continually replaced, we might select the option with heavier carbon miles but better longevity.”

Conversations around the importance of the natural environment may have also influenced the perceived value of landscape architecture. Clients are now recognising outdoor spaces as a defining feature of projects, says Clausen. “As density increases and we see further urbanisation of our cities, biophilic design elements will help people feel connected to the landscape and to each other.”

Always was, always will be aboriginal land

“Discussion of Country and our First Peoples is a greater consideration than it’s ever been,” Carter says. He predicts a ‘Yes’ vote for the planned referendum on the Voice to Parliament and notes the influence of Carter Williamson’s Reconciliation Action Plan: a set of goals and benchmarks that ensure consideration of Indigenous heritage and cultural knowledge is integral to every step of the design process.

Buchan’s Reconciliation Action Plan includes a brand-new scholarship for an Indigenous architect studying at the University of Queensland.

As an industry, landscape architecture is leading the way in advocating for First Nations co-design and cultural engagement. Arcadia has been committed to practical outcomes such as scholarships and research reports for years.

“We know that Indigenous-led designs are richer in narrative and meaning. Projects are also more sustainable, with materials that are environmentally sensitive and planting strategies that strengthen and rebuild lost and endangered vegetation communities,” Clausen says. “We’ve seen how First Nations involvement has proven to increase commercial viability and productivity of space, and we want to continue to lead in this space.”

Branko Miletic

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