A new Monash University-led report has found that large-scale technology trends — from AI-driven building systems and electrified homes to remote care and hybrid work — are being developed with little regard for the energy system constraints of a climate-constrained future.

The report, Scenarios for Future Living: Emerging technology innovation and development, drew on 93 reports, expert interviews and industry observations to map the technology trends expected to shape how Australians live and work in the coming decades. It then compared those trends against climate risks identified in the National Climate Risk Assessment — including extreme heat, bushfires, drought, riverine floods and infrastructure disruption.

Technologies built on assumptions that may not hold

Lead author Dr Kari Dahlgren, a social anthropologist from Monash's Faculty of Arts, says the fundamental problem is one of design assumptions.

"Much of today's technology innovation doesn't seriously consider the energy system implications of the technology," Dr Dahlgren says. "As climate risks intensify, technologies that depend on continuous power and connectivity may face greater challenges to how they function in everyday life."

The report identifies several areas where this disconnect is most visible: rising demand for cooling technologies in a warming climate, the need for more resilient digital and energy infrastructure, and the risks facing home-based healthcare and remote monitoring systems during power outages.

Unequal exposure

The study finds these risks are not evenly distributed. Older Australians, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, regional and remote communities, and lower-income households face greater exposure due to higher reliance on energy systems and unequal access to resilient technologies.

Industries including healthcare, aged care, construction, logistics and energy are also flagged as vulnerable, with climate impacts likely to reduce workforce capacity, strain infrastructure and disrupt supply chains.

A call for resilient design

Monash Energy Institute Director (Research) and co-author Professor Yolande Strengers says the framing of these technologies as climate solutions masks their dependency on the very systems under stress.

"These technologies are often framed as solutions to climate challenges, but they are deeply dependent on the very systems that are under increasing stress," Professor Strengers says. "We need to be considering these technological innovations and how they are likely to unfold in everyday life to ensure the system continues to be resilient to these future changes."

Co-author Dr Fareed Kaviani from Monash's Faculty of Information Technology adds that addressing the gap will require a fundamental shift in how technologies are designed. "There is a growing need to design technologies that are not only efficient and advanced, but also resilient to disruption," Dr Kaviani says. "That includes building systems that can respond to increasingly volatile environments."

Six visions of the future

The researchers developed six future scenarios demonstrating how current technology trends may play out differently across Australian households: from older residents relying on AI-assisted home healthcare to homes operating as automated energy-optimised systems to a counter-scenario of more energy-conscious living with fewer digital devices. Across all scenarios, increasing reliance on electricity and connectivity heightens exposure to climate-related disruption.

The report was developed by researchers from Monash University and the University of New South Wales and forms part of the Scenarios for Future Living project under the RACE for 2030 co-operative research centre — involving Monash University, UNSW, UTS and CSIRO alongside industry partners including Ausgrid, CitiPower, Powercor and United Energy.

Main image: Green building, Carlton, Victoria. Credit: Wikimedia Commons / Elekhh / CC BY-SA 3.0

Architecture & Design Team

Let’s connect!