The Budget premise of strong economic growth is forecast to underpin a strong rebound in commercial building, according to Master Builders Australia . At the same time, MBA is concerned that a decline in private dwelling will be steeper than predicted.
“The forecast increase of 14 percent in private investment in other buildings and structures will be offset by the decline in housing,” says Wilhelm Harnisch, the MBA’s chief economist and deputy national executive director, noting that the forecast three percent decline in private dwelling investment, “is very conservative in light of likely future rate rises and therefore the housing decline will be steeper.
“The housing sector will wane as one of the major growth sectors in the economy,” he says. “The GDP growth forecasts are achievable but the outcomes will largely be influenced by the RBA’s future monetary policy stance. The challenge for the GDP forecasts will be the degree to which the RBA pursues an aggressive series of interest rate rises over the next 12 months.”
The MBA says it welcomes the Government’s commitment to training by expanding the school-based new apprenticeship scheme, which will provide additional employer incentive bonuses of $750 plus a retention bonus of $750.”
Commenting on the intergenerational report looking at Australia’s ageing population, Harnisch says: “Apart from the particular health and aged care needs, Australia’s rapidly changing demographics are also having a significant impact on the delivery and form of housing for older persons. These changes in society will place additional pressure on housing affordability as well as the development of appropriate urban planning policies to accommodate the increasing demands for alternative independent living housing lifestyles for older Australians.”
Source: Building Products News.