Economic analyst and forecaster BIS Shrapnel reveals that New South Wales’ win in the 2014 State of Origin series has more to do with investment cycles.

In its new Infrastructure and Mining blog, BIS Shrapnel points out an interesting correlation between civil construction activity in each state and the outcome of each State of Origin series since 1996. Therefore, NSW’s thrilling series win - their first in eight years – is connected to the state’s rising engineering construction activity.

For instance, in the ten series played between New South Wales and Queensland during the period 1996-2005, also a period when New South Wales engineering construction activity eclipsed that of Queensland, the Maroons only won two series, two were drawn and six were won by the Blues.

However, Queensland’s infrastructure and resources investment boom from 2006 coincided with an eight-year uninterrupted reign of success for the Maroons.

Senior Manager of BIS Shrapnel's Infrastructure and Mining Unit, Adrian Hart says that they have been notifying this stark correlation to their Queensland and New South Wales clients over the past few years. This also means, the 2014 series win for New South Wales could auger a new cycle of Blues domination.

Hart observes that the construction momentum has definitely shifted in favour of New South Wales; driven by new transport infrastructure projects across roads and railways, and with the prospect of airport development at Badgerys Creek, New South Wales civil construction activity is set to exceed that of Queensland by a substantial margin, suggesting more series victories ahead for the Blues.

Queensland's prospects have correspondingly weakened with the mining investment boom cooling down.

BIS Shrapnel’s new Infrastructure and Mining Blog

BIS Shrapnel’s new Infrastructure and Mining blog will provide a variety of news, perspectives and analysis on Australia’s infrastructure and mining markets based on extensive research.